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Since seizing power in a coup four years ago, Mamady Doumbouya has overhauled Guinea's minerals sector and launched a huge iron ore project, achievements he hopes will secure him victory in a presidential election meant to cap a return to civilian rule.
The December 28 vote, which Doumbouya once pledged not to contest, is expected to cement his grip on power in the West African country after key challengers were sidelined.
A former special forces commander believed to be in his early 40s, Doumbouya gained broad support after he led the September 2021 coup against then-president Alpha Conde, who had sparked protests by seeking a controversial third term.
Unlike neighbouring Sahel states plagued by coups and jihadist insurgencies, Guinea has enjoyed relative stability under his leadership, alongside economic reforms and new mining sector investments, according to consultancy Signal Risk.
BAUXITE AND IRON ORE
The country holds the world's largest bauxite reserves and richest untapped iron ore deposit at Simandou, where a massive mining project was launched in November.
Under Doumbouya, Guinea has of its military-led neighbours , and to exert more control over mining in order to boost state revenues. His transitional government EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation's license in July after a refinery dispute, transferring its assets to a state-owned firm.
Western powers face a dilemma: denouncing democratic backsliding could push Doumbouya closer to China and other rivals, said Benedict Manzin, lead Middle East and Africa analyst at risk consultancy Sibylline.
But a successful transition from coup leader to civilian president could embolden other militaries in the region, he said.
"Doumbouya ... seized power, largely ignored (West African bloc) ECOWAS and domestic demands to rapidly transition back to civilian rule... (then) secured his own election... while the international community largely overlooked how he got to power in the first place," Manzin said.